Climate Resilience
How might AI help Washington growers make confident planting and investment decisions in the face of a changing climate?
Crop diversity is one of the strengths of Washington’s agriculture sector. The state’s varied growing zones support more than 300 commodities. However, changes in weather and climate are already affecting this production. A 2024 WSDA climate-resilience survey found that over 70% of respondents had seen their operations disrupted within the previous five years by stressors including extreme heat, drought, wildfire smoke, shifting weather, and weakened crop yields.
Shifts in climate also create new opportunities. Warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons could open the door to new kinds of production and expand market opportunities. For example, a longer season could make double-cropping possible or allow growers to raise crops currently suited to warmer climates. Washington is also relatively well-positioned compared to many other states: its temperate climate, surface-water availability, and extensive irrigation systems could make it an increasingly important source of food production as conditions shift.
Adapting to new conditions requires long-term planning. WSDA’s report notes that crop-suitability planning depends on more research into drought- and heat-tolerant crops and on on-farm resilience strategies. AI could support that work by learning from regions whose present-day climate resembles Washington’s projected future, and drawing on their lessons to match crops and livestock to Washington’s future conditions, reducing the risk for growers who trial new crops on their own land. AI has the potential to inform how Washington farmers plan, experiment, and make long-horizon decisions about what to grow and raise next.
Opportunity Areas
The opportunity areas below are meant to inspire, not prescribe. The best ideas may come from directions we haven’t anticipated. We welcome ideas that address one area or span several.
How might AI give Washington farmers reliable, place-specific guidance on which crops, varieties, and livestock systems will thrive under projected future conditions so they can make confident, long-horizon decisions?
Many farmers face deep uncertainty about which crops and livestock systems will remain viable as growing conditions shift. Warmer temperatures and longer seasons could open new opportunities but realizing those requires advance planning.
Ideas might include:
- Models linking climate projections to crop suitability at the farm and county level, accounting for soil type, elevation, and water availability
- High-throughput genotype-to-phenotype mapping to accelerate identification of heat- and drought-tolerant varieties for perennial and annual crops
- Probabilistic forecasting tools that communicate what is certain versus still unknown, giving growers actionable ranges rather than single-point predictions
How might AI derisk the piloting of new crops or systems on growers’ own land, so the broader community benefits from their experimentation?
Transitioning to new crops or systems is risky for individual growers and the community loses when farmers who might pioneer change cannot absorb the cost of failure. Growers need support structures, compensation mechanisms, and visible champions to make transformation feasible.
Ideas might include:
- Compensation or insurance mechanisms for growers who voluntarily trial new varieties, crop types, or mixed systems on their own land
- Support structures including capital access, knowledge networks, and visible champions to help operations of all sizes manage transition costs and risks
- An ecosystem of collaborators, researchers, investors, insurers, growers, and extension services, coordinated around shared learning goals
- A place where growers who do try new varieties, crops or growing strategies to capture their learnings so that others can benefit from their experience.
How might we help Washington growers learn from agricultural regions already experiencing Washington’s future climate?
Regions that already face Washington’s projected future conditions hold hard-won knowledge about what works and what doesn’t. Connecting Washington growers to those communities, through data and in person, can compress the learning curve and reduce the risk of transition.
Ideas might include:
- AI tools that identify and match comparable regions based on climate, soil, and water profiles to enable targeted knowledge exchange
- Study tours and field partnerships with communities already navigating similar transitions, giving growers a concrete vision of possible futures
